Two years from now, in 2017, developers are expected to complete 161,000 new apartments, according to projections by Reis. That’s a lot less than the 197,000 new apartments anticipated to come on line in 2016 and the whopping 230,000 new units expected this year. It’s still a lot, however. Just to compare, the average number of new apartments produced in a year over the last few cycles is just 120,000. (Those totals don’t include the more than 100,000 units of affordable housing built every year through government programs.)
“It seems like the floodgates have opened,” says Severino. “The new supply under construction completely outstrips the demand from demographics.”
But by 2017, the apartments that opened in 2015 and 2016 will have left some slack in the apartment markets. The percentage of vacant apartments in the U.S. will be 5.5 percent, up from close to 4.0 now, according to a projection by Reis.
There is an ongoing and unsettled debate regarding supply concerns in certain markets in the United States.
According to REIS, developers are expected to complete 161,000 new apartments in 2017, 197,000 new apartments in 2016 and 230,000 new units expected this year. But by 2017, they are forecasting the percentage of vacant apartments in the U.S. will be 5.5 percent, up from close to 4.0 now.
Each metro will have to be closely evaluated, but the big question remains of how many luxury apartments can each market and submarket can absorb without having a dramatic effect on occupancy and rents.